Kalshi’s Crowd Bets Rival Fed Economists—Could Markets Really Predict Monetary Policy?

Prediction markets are gaining credibility and controversy at the same time. A recent study suggests that market-based forecasts may now rival traditional economic predictions over several months. Experts argue that such real-money, continuously updated markets could provide policymakers and researchers with a live, information-rich benchmark for macroeconomic expectations. Prediction Markets Rising Accuracy Meets Regulatory Showdown Recent analysis found that Kalshi’s implied forecasts for the federal funds target rate delivered an average absolute error over roughly a 150-day horizon source: https://beincrypto.com/cftc-prediction-market-federal-state-battle/