Labor Statistics Bureau to Release Delayed Population Control Data

The Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release new population control data that was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown last year. According to Odaily, BNP Paribas Chief U.S. Economist Eggerhoff noted that the latest Census Bureau data indicates the Labor Statistics Bureau has been overestimating population growth since the end of 2024. The adjusted January data is expected to show a reduction of approximately 590,000 in the population aged 16 and above, a decrease of about 370,000 in the labor force, and similar adjustments in household survey employment figures. Using experimental series that smooth past population control and immigration data, combined with the latest census data, the U.S. labor force is projected to grow by only 900,000 in 2025, with overall labor force growth in 2026 expected to be well below 500,000. The population control adjustments will only affect January's household survey data, meaning month-to-month comparisons of household employment, unemployment, and labor force indicators will not be directly comparable. Bank of America Securities Economist Mishra stated that the good news is that key ratios, such as the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate, are typically minimally affected. Last year, population control adjustments increased these two ratios by 0.1 percentage points, while this year's adjustments may slightly decrease them.