French Bank Warns of Long-Term Oil Production Risks in Middle East

French bank Société Générale has highlighted potential risks associated with prolonged oil production halts in the Middle East. According to Jin10, the bank's analysts, Michael Haigh and Ben Hoff, emphasized that the duration of disruptions is crucial. They noted that the longer the interruptions persist, the more likely temporary shutdowns could evolve into lasting supply losses. The bank indicated that risks begin to rise after approximately two weeks of halted production and intensify beyond a month. In cases where production halts last several months, capacity typically recovers to only 80% to 95% of its original level. The bank also warned that if more oil-producing countries, beyond Iraq and Kuwait, reduce output, restoring pre-crisis supply levels swiftly would become increasingly challenging.