Bitcoin's Future Influenced by Macroeconomic Factors, Analysts Say

Bitcoin's trajectory is increasingly being shaped by macroeconomic elements such as oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve monetary policy, according to Odaily. Analysts note that following a significant market deleveraging, leverage in the crypto derivatives market has notably decreased, leading to a shift in market structure. Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'leverage-driven correction phase' to a 'macro liquidity-driven consolidation phase.' With reduced participation in derivatives, the market's sensitivity to the overall liquidity environment has risen. Recently, the energy market has emerged as a crucial variable. Over the past three weeks, international oil prices have surged approximately 80% from their lows, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Rising oil prices are typically accompanied by an increase in U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar, which tightens global liquidity and may limit the short-term upside for risk assets. Additionally, higher energy prices can elevate inflation expectations. Given that energy accounts for about 9% of the CPI basket in developed economies, sustained oil price increases could delay market expectations for interest rate cuts, maintaining tight financial conditions. Analysts also highlight that Bitcoin's recent performance has shown a stronger correlation with tech stocks rather than traditional safe-haven assets like gold.