Japan's Central Bank May Focus on Price Risks Amid Inflation Slowdown, ING Economist Says

Japan's central bank is likely to prioritize price risks over the recent slowdown in inflation, according to economists at ING. The initial results from wage negotiations are encouraging, and the ongoing Middle East conflict has had minimal impact so far. According to Jin10, the preliminary PMI figures have declined, reflecting recent oil supply shocks and a decrease in new orders, which raises concerns about the economic outlook. However, the overall data remains above 50, indicating that businesses view geopolitical risks as temporary. Persistent core inflation, PMI data, and wage negotiations increase the likelihood of an interest rate hike in April, although the exact timing remains uncertain. The situation in the Middle East will play a crucial role in the Bank of Japan's decision-making process. If the situation stabilizes without signs of production or consumption decline, the probability of an April rate hike will be higher.