Goldman Sachs Analysts: Low Probability of Fed Rate Hike Despite Market Volatility

Goldman Sachs analysts have highlighted that since the onset of the Iraq War, the market pricing of the U.S. federal funds rate has experienced significant fluctuations. According to Jin10, the analysts noted that the likelihood of a rate hike this year remains low. They pointed out that the current supply shock is relatively minor and more contained compared to past inflation-inducing shocks, with oil price increases being less severe than those in the 1970s. Additionally, they believe that the economic starting point reduces the likelihood of widespread inflation spillover, and the current monetary policy stance further diminishes the probability of a rate hike. The analysts emphasized that the Federal Reserve typically does not implement tightening policies solely in response to oil shocks.