Global Aluminum Supply-Demand Gap Projected to Persist Through 2027

On April 10, Jin10 reported that Huatai Securities has calculated the global supply-demand gap for primary aluminum to be -949,000 tons in 2026 and -389,000 tons in 2027. According to Jin10, this significant gap is attributed to the rigid changes in production due to the characteristics of electrolytic cell equipment, which have led to a decline in output. Even if the ongoing war ends swiftly, supply is unlikely to recover in the short term. On the demand side, previous market expectations were pessimistic due to high crude oil prices. Huatai Securities suggests that as concerns over the war ease, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices may be further realized. Investors are advised to focus on companies with overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity, as they are likely to benefit directly from the substantial increase in overseas aluminum prices.