Polymarket Odds for Strait of Hormuz Normalization Drop

The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31 has significantly decreased on Polymarket, with a 6% drop in one hour and a 12% decline over 24 hours. According to Odaily, the event contract stipulates that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a seven-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 on any date from market creation until May 31, 2026, the market will resolve as 'yes'; otherwise, it will resolve as 'no'. The daily count includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, excluding those not reported by the IMF Portwatch. Pakistani media confirmed today that an Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, with major talks between Iran and the United States scheduled for tomorrow. The discussions in Pakistan will focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire. Additionally, the U.S. delegation participating in the talks has departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, with U.S. Vice President Vance already on board. Before departure, Vance expressed anticipation for the negotiations on the Iran issue, stating that U.S. President Donald Trump has provided 'quite clear guidelines' for the talks.