Polymarket Predicts Low Probability of Strait of Hormuz Normalization by May 31

The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations by May 31 is currently estimated at only 37%, according to Odaily. This marks a 9% decrease over the past 24 hours. The contract stipulates that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a seven-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz equal to or exceeding 60 on any date from the market's creation until May 31, 2026, the market will be deemed 'yes.' Otherwise, it will be considered 'no.' The daily count includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, excluding those not reported by the IMF Portwatch. According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military has announced plans to enforce a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz. Unauthorized vessels entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, redirected, or detained. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed support for U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, stating that his government is in full coordination with Washington on this matter. In a video statement from the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu told his cabinet, "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to impose a maritime blockade. We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States."