Market Adjusts Expectations for UK Rate Hike Amid US-Iran Peace Talks

On May 7, Jin10 reported that market investors have lowered their expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, following speculation that the United States and Iran may reach a peace agreement. According to Jin10, reports indicate that US-Iran negotiations are ongoing and could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This news has impacted Brent crude oil prices, which fell by 3.5%. Data from LSEG shows that the market currently anticipates a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England in 2026, down from the 66 basis points priced in before the news of the US-Iran talks.