According to Blockworks, the current state of the cryptocurrency market shows Bitcoin (BTC) nearing its previous price record from March. As BTC approaches this milestone, questions arise about the potential end of the bull run. Historically, BTC's price movements have often been followed by other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), though not always in sync.
ETH has historically lagged behind BTC in setting new price records. For instance, during the 2017-2018 bull run, ETH reached its all-time high 27 days after BTC peaked at nearly $20,000. BTC surpassed its previous high in early December 2020, while ETH remained 60% below its record. However, ETH eventually more than doubled in value over the next 56 days, achieving a new all-time high by the end of January 2021.
This time, the scenario appears different. It has been 238 days since BTC broke its previous high from November 2021, yet ETH remains 45% below its peak. Similarly, SOL has shown a comparable performance to ETH during this period, currently standing 31% below its November 2021 record high. Both ETH and SOL have exhibited tight correlation since BTC's peak in March.
The question of whether ETH and SOL will catch up if BTC confirms a bull run remains speculative. Historically, major assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL have shown staggered recoveries between cycle tops. However, they tend to align closely when reaching new peaks. For instance, BTC and ETH hit their all-time highs on the same day nearly a year after their drawdown recoveries, while SOL peaked a few days earlier.
The analysis suggests that the end of a bull run can often be identified when major cryptocurrencies converge at their all-time highs. This pattern has been observed in previous four-year cycles, where BTC and ETH were not in lockstep during their recoveries but aligned closely at their peaks. The current market dynamics indicate that BTC, ETH, and SOL may be out of sync, which could be a bullish sign based on historical trends.
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