Fed mouthpiece: The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path to resuming rate cuts remains unclear.

Nick Timiraos, the Fed's mouthpiece, reports that Fed officials are expected to keep rates unchanged this week for the first time since three consecutive rate cuts last September. The question is, what would prompt the Fed to cut rates again? The answer depends on which risk materializes first: a collapse in the labor market, or a significant drop in inflation towards the 2% target. Neither has occurred since the last meeting in December. As a result, the committee remains on the sidelines despite significant political pressure from the White House. Most officials still believe a rate cut is possible later this year, but there is disagreement on when data will support it. (Jinshi)