Gate CBO: Beta can explain Bitcoin's past correlations, but alpha can determine Bitcoin's future.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee published a special analysis on Cathie Wood's core viewpoint at Ark Investments that "Bitcoin's low beta value possesses both offensive and defensive attributes." He pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term value is unrelated to its beta value; the core lies in its unique commercialization path and network effects. Lee stated that Bitcoin's returns are not driven by a single risk factor, but rather by structural factors such as network expansion, increased institutional participation, improved compliance infrastructure, and the implementation of on-chain applications. Its attributes dynamically switch with the market environment: during periods of macroeconomic shocks, it exhibits characteristics of a risky asset; during periods of technological iteration and increased adoption, Bitcoin releases non-systematic excess returns, i.e., alpha. He emphasized that beta and alpha values ​​rely on linear regression models for calculation, and are affected by data intervals and statistical frequencies, making it difficult to objectively define Bitcoin's true risk-return structure. While models can explain its historical performance, they cannot constrain Bitcoin's future. Currently, the Bitcoin network is still expanding, and its risk-return structure continues to evolve. This dynamic growth and uniqueness are the core of its long-term allocation value, and also confirm the allocation logic of "proportionally including it in a portfolio can optimize the efficient frontier."