Analysts warn of the lagged effects of tariffs, suggesting that long-term US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than fall.

According to a recent report by analysts at Bayern State Bank, inflationary factors may keep US long-term Treasury yields high in 2026. The report points out that 2025 was clearly better than expected: the positive surprise masked the negative factors as the boost to inflation from US tariff policies was more moderate than anticipated. However, analysts believe this lagged effect will manifest in 2026, at which point the inflation data may not be as surprising as before. (Jinshi)