The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, citing concerns over persistent inflation. According to Jin10, the minutes from the recent meeting reveal that the committee members are worried about the risks to inflation and employment, which have significantly shifted. They believe that without policy intervention, inflation could remain elevated for an extended period.
The market anticipates that stubborn inflation in the current quarter might prompt the RBA to increase rates again in May, potentially reaching 4.10%. Analysts expect the first-quarter consumer price data, due at the end of April, to show core inflation around 3.4%, which is above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%.
The committee acknowledges that future rate decisions will depend on data trends, with risks present in both directions.