Analysis: Bitcoin selling pressure has decreased to a cyclical low, and on-chain models indicate that the market has entered an accumulation phase.

On-chain analytics models show that Bitcoin's current network selling pressure has fallen to a cyclical low, and the market is in a clear accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered an "allocation signal" in December 2024, when Bitcoin's price was approximately $107,000, and this signal has not reappeared since. Data shows that current selling pressure levels have fallen to about one-sixth of the cyclical average, and related indicators have even returned to levels seen during the 2022–2023 bear market (when BTC's price was approximately $16,000 to $20,000). The model divides this cycle into two phases: the first is the "strong allocation phase" from November to December 2024, with prices ranging from $64,000 to $107,000; the second is the current re-entry into the "accumulation phase." The Sell-side Risk Ratio measures the activity of market participants taking profits relative to the network's overall cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, an allocation signal is triggered, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, an accumulation signal is triggered, signifying extremely low selling pressure. Data shows that the allocation signal in this cycle lasted 37 days, covering the main range of BTC's rise from $64,000 to $107,000. Since the signal closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen a new allocation signal for approximately 449 days. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 in the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of approximately 20 points per day. Historically, the $1,500 to $2,000 range typically corresponds to selling pressure levels seen in 2019 (BTC around $3,000–$6,000) and the mid-bear market of 2022–2023 (BTC around $16,000–$20,000). However, the current BTC price is still in the $67,000 to $72,000 range, showing a clear structural divergence. Analysis indicates that this means early holders who accumulated at lower prices have already taken large-scale profits in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while those who didn't sell in that range are currently choosing to hold. The model suggests that a new distribution signal might only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000, accompanied by large-scale profit-taking. Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation phase. The current model's overall assessment of the market is "neutral to slightly accumulating," but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of consolidation. (Axeladlerjr)