Institutions: The core of the current gold price trend lies in the renewed constraint that rising energy prices are placing on interest rate expectations.

Cinda Futures points out that the core driver of gold's current trend lies in the renewed constraint of rising energy prices on interest rate expectations. With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, oil prices remain high, with Brent crude futures previously stabilizing above $100, significantly increasing market concerns about sticky inflation. Against this backdrop, the market's assessment of the inflation decline path has become more cautious, thus weakening the pricing of interest rate cuts and pushing the dollar stronger in the short term, putting downward pressure on gold. Meanwhile, although previous employment data was weak, energy-driven inflation expectations are offsetting this positive factor, making gold's financial attributes bearish in the short term. On the policy front, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the interest rate path, especially Powell's assessment of the impact of inflation and geopolitical conflicts, which will directly affect the market's judgment on the subsequent pace of easing. (Jinshi)