U.S. Recession Risk Rises Amid Prolonged Middle East Conflict

The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is increasing the risk of a recession in the United States, according to recent reports. According to Jin10, several institutions have raised their predictions for the likelihood of a U.S. economic downturn. Moody's Analytics now estimates a 48.6% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast to 30%. Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young Global Limited predict recession probabilities of 45% and 40%, respectively. Typically, this probability hovers around 20%. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, expressed concern over the rising risk, stating that the threat of recession is becoming increasingly real. He warned that if current high oil prices persist through late May to the end of the second quarter, the U.S. economy could indeed fall into a recession.