Polymarket Predicts Increased Likelihood of Israeli Strike on Yemen by 2026

The probability of Israel launching a strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026, has significantly increased on Polymarket, according to Odaily. The current probability stands at 60%, compared to an average of 18.1% over the past week. On March 28, 2026, Houthi forces announced a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel, marking their first direct military action against Israeli territory amid recent conflicts involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel. The group claimed to have targeted 'sensitive military facilities' in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed detecting a missile launched from Yemen and reported successfully intercepting it, with no casualties reported. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that the attack was a response to U.S. and Israeli military actions against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, emphasizing that their operations would continue until 'aggression stops.' Houthi officials have repeatedly warned that blocking the Mandeb Strait is a viable option. Analysts express concern that if the Mandeb Strait is effectively blocked following restrictions on the Hormuz Strait, it could disrupt key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.