Polymarket's probability of a US invasion of Iran before March 31st has dropped to 11%, a 6% decrease in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before March 31st has dropped to 11% on Polymarket, a 6% decrease in the past 24 hours; the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before April 30th is currently at 62%, a 3% increase in the past 24 hours, with current contract trading volume exceeding $42.6 million. Today, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. With thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, this could become a dangerous new phase of the war if President Trump chooses to escalate it. Officials indicated that any potential ground operation would not be a full-scale invasion, but rather a joint raid by special operations forces and conventional infantry. Such a mission could expose U.S. personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it was unclear whether Trump would approve or veto all or part of the Pentagon's plans. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.