Economist Warns of Uncertain Eurozone Inflation Trajectory

According to Jin10, Capital Economics economist Andrew Kenningham stated in a report that despite the eurozone experiencing its largest monthly inflation increase since the end of 2022, the data does not clearly indicate how high prices will rise or how energy prices will impact broader inflation metrics. The overall inflation rate rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, primarily driven by fuel price increases. There is significant uncertainty regarding the transmission of energy prices to core and services inflation, as well as the European Central Bank's policy response. Kenningham predicts that by the end of 2026, overall inflation could rise to nearly 4%, with core inflation approaching 3%, largely depending on the duration of the Iran war. He suggests that both indicators might decline again in 2027.