10x Research: Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategies may have become ineffective; dynamic allocation based on market cycles performs better.

10x Research published an article on its X platform stating that as Bitcoin has grown into a trillion-dollar asset, its return characteristics have shifted from early exponential growth to more pronounced cyclical fluctuations. The effectiveness of traditional dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies is diminishing. While Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility over the past five years, overall incremental returns have been limited. Passive holding strategies have faced multiple drawdowns and long-term returns that are mismatched. In contrast, dynamic allocation strategies based on market cycles perform better. This difference stems primarily from the fact that dynamic allocation can avoid significant drawdowns during structural bear markets and re-enter the market when conditions improve. In the current volatile market environment, risk management itself is a source of excess returns. A cycle-based allocation framework helps investors protect capital during bear markets and seize opportunities when the odds of success increase.