The probability of "US troops entering Iran as of April 30" on Polymarket has increased significantly, currently standing at 96.5%.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows a significant increase in the probability of "US military presence in Iran as of April 30" on Polymarket, currently standing at 96.5%. According to Al Jazeera, a US government official told Al Jazeera that the second crew member of the downed F-15E fighter jet has been rescued, and the rescue operation is ongoing. The missing crew member has been confirmed rescued but is not yet out of danger. They added that the rescue team still needs to successfully evacuate from Iran and return safely. According to Polymarket's criteria, if active-duty US military personnel actually entered Iran at any time before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will rate it "Yes." Otherwise, the market will rate it "No." Special operations forces personnel qualify; however, intelligence personnel are not included. US military personnel must actually enter Iranian land territory to qualify. Entry into Iranian waters or airspace is not counted. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.