Analysts: Rising oil prices may become a more structural driver of inflation.

Analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank stated in a report that strong oil prices have been and will continue to be (at least in the short term) a more structural driver of inflationary pressures. The analysts pointed out that inflationary pressures have led to a sell-off in interest rates as expectations of central bank rate cuts have faded. Previously, the market had anticipated two to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but these expectations have been ruled out. LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects US policy rates to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very slight tightening bias. The market has even priced in a more hawkish rate hike scenario by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by the end of this year, with increases of 74 basis points and 56 basis points respectively, "largely a result of imported energy inflation in Europe." (Jinshi)