Polymarket's probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by May 15th has dropped to 37%, a 45% decrease in the past 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by May 15th has dropped to 37% on Polymarket, a 45% decrease in 24 hours. The total trading volume of contracts related to the "US-Iran ceasefire" event has exceeded $107 million. The rules of this event contract state that if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to cease direct military action) by a specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will be "no." A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus confirmed through media reports. US Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (8 AM Wednesday Beijing Time), and stated that Kharg Island does not signify a strategic shift. Earlier on Tuesday, two U.S. officials stated that the U.S. launched strikes on military targets on Kharg Island ahead of Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. One official said the U.S. struck more than 50 targets on the island. Officials said the strikes took place early Tuesday morning Eastern Time and did not target oil infrastructure. Trump had set Tuesday evening (Eastern Time) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise it would face the risk of devastating damage to its energy infrastructure. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.