Polymarket's probability that "Israel will take military action against Iran's nuclear power plant before April 30" has risen to 96%, a 51% increase in the past 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Israel taking military action against Iranian nuclear power plants before April 30th has risen to 96% on Polymarket, a 51% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules state that if Israel launches a military strike against any Iranian power plant before April 30th, the market will mark it as "yes." Otherwise, it will mark it as "no." This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile attacks, aerial bombing, and military operations by Israeli ground personnel. Cyberattacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions are not considered in resolving disputes in this market. Israeli airstrikes, missile attacks, or drone attacks that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their targets will not be considered in this market. Senior Israeli officials have stated that Israel believes a ceasefire is premature and hopes the military action against Iran can continue for at least another month. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.