Societe Generale Strategists Adjust ECB Rate Hike Expectations

Societe Generale's interest rate strategists have revised their baseline scenario, according to Jin10. They now anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement two 'preventive' rate hikes in June and September, while the economy remains resilient. This adjustment is expected to keep the 10-year German bond yield above 3% throughout 2026, preventing a significant yield curve inversion. The strategists suggest that a ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East could stabilize the short end of the eurozone yield curve, with market expectations for the ECB's terminal rate stabilizing around 2.50%. They also note that if German bond yields fall below 2.90%, it may present an opportunity to short duration, as they still expect the yield to reach 3.20% in the second quarter.