Analysis: Multiple factors support a long-term bullish trend for gold, with prices potentially reaching $5,800 by the end of the year.

ANZ and Goldman Sachs, among other institutions, say gold could rebound in the long term even if the Middle East wars disrupt markets. Analysts at these institutions cite resilient central bank demand, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and diversification into dollar-denominated assets as reasons for a long-term bullish outlook. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes stated that they expect prices to eventually recover as a deteriorating macroeconomic mix of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume rate cuts. ANZ maintains its outlook, predicting gold prices will reach $5,800 by the end of the year. The analysts write that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases projected at around 850 tonnes in 2026. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate the diversification of traditional Western assets, providing long-term support for gold prices. (Jinshi)