Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may not end the conflict, but rather escalate the risks.

Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," analyzed that the US announcement of a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the "most tactically astute" moves in the current conflict, but it is unlikely to achieve the goal of ending the war. This strategy has two major short-term advantages: first, it directly reduces Iran's crude oil export revenue by approximately 1.7 million barrels per day; second, compared to occupying key facilities (such as Kharg Island), a maritime blockade is less costly and more controllable in terms of risk. However, the effectiveness of this strategy faces multiple challenges. For example, the current blockade mainly targets Iranian ports, rather than completely closing the strait; third-party transshipment routes still exist, and it also weakens the US's long-standing international image of upholding "freedom of navigation," potentially having a profound impact on the global maritime order. Garrett Jin concluded that while the blockade measures reshape the initiative in the short term, they are unlikely to force Iran to make concessions, and may instead compress diplomatic space and prolong the conflict. The market has already priced in the impact of the blockade itself, but has not yet fully priced in potential escalation paths.