Polymarket has updated its search query, "How long will the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah be extended?", with a preliminary probability of 78% as of April 26th.

According to Odaily Seer, a new event on Polymarket, titled "How Long Will the Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah Be Extended?", shows a 15% probability as of April 21, a 12% decrease over the past 7 days; and a 78% probability as of April 26, a 40% increase over the past 7 days. The total bet on this event is currently around $36,000. The contract rules state that if the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, is formally extended—defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed-upon extension of direct military contact between Israel and Hezbollah by a specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time)—the market will mark it as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will ultimately mark it as "No". Extensions to the April 16 ceasefire, as well as new agreements planned to take effect before or at the end of the initial agreement, will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided that no ceasefire is in effect during the ceasefire period. If a qualified agreement is formally reached before the resolution date, the market will judge it as "yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires explicit public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to cease military hostilities for more than the initially agreed 10-day period, or overwhelming media coverage confirming a formal extension of the ceasefire. Any form of informal understanding, secret communication, de-escalation, or unilateral ceasefire does not meet the criteria unless a confirmed agreement on a conditional extension is reached. Similarly, newly reached humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical halts do not qualify. Newly reached broader peace agreements that include a conditional ceasefire extension or a pause in military conflict qualify. Agreements that list future negotiations or de-escalation measures but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire will not qualify. The market's decision will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, overwhelming media coverage confirming an official ceasefire extension will also be considered. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.