Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": Market Bets on "Peaceful Trade," Hormuz Risk Remains Unresolved

Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," wrote that the market is currently pricing in "peaceful expectations," driving up risk assets, but this is diverging from the supply and demand situation in the energy market. He pointed out that while the S&P 500 hit a record high, Brent crude oil prices rebounded to around $103. Previously, hedge funds had heavily shorted crude oil, with Goldman Sachs data showing a short-to-long ratio that once reached 7.6:1. The conditions upon which the current market rally depends—the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a decline in oil prices, falling inflation, and a Fed rate cut—have not yet materialized, and the gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has widened to its highest level since 2021.