Polymarket's probability that Powell will step down from his position as a Federal Reserve governor before May 30 has dropped to 9%, a 25% decrease in the past 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Powell stepping down from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before May 30th has plummeted on Polymarket, now down to 9%, a 25% drop in 24 hours; the probability of Powell stepping down from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before December 31st has fallen to 66%, an 11% drop in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are: if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time during the specified period (11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be judged as "yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "no". If Powell ceases to be Federal Reserve Chairman but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the "yes" condition is not met. The judgment is based on information released by the US government, but consensus from credible reports can also be used as a basis. At a press conference this morning, Powell stated that he would continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor "for some time" after stepping down as Chairman and pledged to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant responded, "It would be extraordinary if Powell remained a Federal Reserve Governor; for someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision would go against tradition." Odaily Seer continues to focus on predicting the market, seeing changes before pricing them in.