Institutions: US job growth may slow in April as temporary boost fades.

U.S. job growth may slow in April as the boost from temporary factors such as warmer weather and the return of striking healthcare workers to work fades, but this does not signify a substantial change in the labor market, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 4.3%. Data is also expected to show faster wage growth last month, further reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2027. A Reuters poll shows economists attribute the volatility in employment data in part to adjustments this year to the "birth-death model," which estimates the number of jobs gained or lost due to business openings and closures. Some say that the large turnover of businesses has made it difficult for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, to estimate job creation associated with new businesses. In addition, weather, strikes, government layoffs, and significant labor force shifts caused by the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration have also exacerbated the volatility. Economists recommend referring to a three-month moving average of employment data for a better understanding of the labor market. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark stated that averaging the data from recent months still shows moderate positive job growth. Considering the significant changes in immigration flows that have led to a sharp decline in average job growth this year, this alone is not a cause for concern. (Jinshi)