Federal Reserve Unlikely to Cut Rates in May, Probability Merely 6%, Bitcoin May Continue to Dive

Recently, investors have been closely monitoring inflation, and the latest data seems to have influenced their expectations on when and how frequently the Federal Reserve might cut rates this year. This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher than anticipated, with the annual inflation rate rising to 3.2% and the core rate climbing to 3.8%. Earlier this month, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes also reached 4.30%. Meanwhile, the dollar has broken its downtrend since mid-February, gaining about 1% over the past week. Under all other equal conditions, rising interest rates and an appreciating dollar tend to negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, likely continuing its downward trajectory. Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro on platform X predicts, supported by the data, that the Federal Reserve will "keep rates 'higher' for an extended period." The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled for March 20, with no rate cut expected. According to the latest estimates from CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in May is only 6.2%.