Before the CPI is released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points before June is 56%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 97.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 2.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 42.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 56%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.6%. (Jinshi)