EMC Labs: BTC's fourth halving accounts for 30% of the effective supply, causing a significant supply deflation effect

EMC Labs, a crypto asset investment research institution, said in a statement today that although the absolute number of Bitcoin's fourth halving is not as good as the previous halving, the actual proportion of effective circulation may exceed 30%, which will cause a significant supply deflation effect in the next 4-year cycle. According to EMC Labs' calculations, the absolute number of BTC's fourth halving on April 20 was 164,000 pieces/year, and the halving number 4 years ago was 328,000 pieces/year. However, because the number of BTC on centralized exchanges that determine BTC's short-term pricing power has dropped from 3.06 million in the previous cycle to 2.29 million, the annual reduction in production accounts for 7% of short-term liquidity, which is not proportional to the 10% in the previous cycle. The total reduction in production over 4 years accounts for 28% of short-term liquidity. Considering that the number of coins held by centralized exchanges will continue to decline, this figure can actually account for more than 30%. And because the proportion of long-term holders has increased by 14% compared with 4 years ago, the combination of these two factors has a significant impact on the supply deflation caused by this halving. EMC Labs stated that this halving has reduced BTC’s annual inflation rate to 0.8%, and believes that the pattern of a super bull market within 18 months after the halving will reappear.