Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to try to get everyone on board for at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting later this month. However, Powell and others may push for a larger rate cut because of recent labor market weakness.
“Powell doesn’t need a consensus to start cutting rates at the upcoming September meeting, but he may prefer to do so, especially for the first cut,” Kathy Bostjancic, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide, said in an email.
“Consensus has always been a way to prevent the Fed from becoming politicized, and if I were on the FOMC, I think I would prioritize consensus,” Betsey Stevenson, a former Labor Department economist, wrote on social media.
“It will be difficult. There will be a lot of dissenting voices, and it will look bad,” Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas, said of whether Powell can get a consensus for a larger rate cut.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, wrote on social media that Powell may be willing to take that risk.
Swonk wrote: "Powell is more worried about the labor market than his peers. He wants a soft landing. The question is whether he will push hard for a 50 basis point rate cut and how much opposition he is willing to accept to achieve that goal." (Jinshi)