Many Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to be cautious in its first rate cut

Many Wall Street analysts still expect the Fed to be more cautious in its first step of cutting interest rates. "I hope they cut by 50 basis points, but I guess they will cut by 25 basis points." Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said. "They have completed the task of returning to full employment and inflation targets, and the fund rate of around 5.5% is too high. Therefore, I think they need to normalize interest rates quickly, and there is a lot of room to do so." Jefferies US economist Tom Simons said: "Although tightening policy seems to be effective, it has not worked exactly as they imagined, so easing policy should be seen as equally uncertain." "So if you are not sure, you should not rush." ​​Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said: "I guess they disagree." "From a risk management perspective, there are also some members who just want to be more cautious." Seema Shah, an analyst at Principal Asset Management, said that for the Fed, it comes down to deciding which risk is greater-if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it will reignite inflationary pressures, and if the interest rate is only cut by 25 basis points, it may lead to a recession. The Fed, which has been criticized for being too slow to respond to the inflation crisis, may take a reactive, rather than proactive, approach to the risk of a recession.