CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps at its December meeting

CITIC Securities pointed out that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in November 2024 was slightly higher than expected, with healthcare services, leisure and hotel industries and government departments being the main contributors, and retail being the main drag. After the impact of hurricanes and strikes dissipated, the new non-farm employment data in November rebounded as expected. The unemployment rate has risen, and the US job market has weakened mildly, but the wage growth rate remains stable and there has been no large-scale layoffs by companies, and the overall job market remains healthy. After the release of non-farm data, the market raised its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. We believe that the market's expectations for a "soft landing" of the US economy will continue at least until Trump takes office next year, and maintain the previous judgment that the Fed's December interest rate meeting will cut interest rates by 25bps. (Jinshi)