The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has declined, and the probability of no interest rate cut in January next year remains at 91.4%

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell last week, suggesting that the economy has avoided a wave of mass layoffs in the final stages of 2024. The Labor Department said on Thursday that 219,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits in the week ending December 21, compared with 220,000 the previous week and market expectations of 225,000. The U.S. unemployment rate is currently 4.2%, which is still quite mild by the standards of the past decade. But during 2024, the unemployment rate rose slightly, a sign of a softening labor market, which can also be seen in the reduction of job openings per job seeker, the decline in the number of new jobs, and more industries cutting back on hiring. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of no interest rate cut in January next year remains at 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.6%.