Macro outlook for next week: Trump barely leaves the market a chance to blink, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates stable

Odaily Planet Daily News: Concerns about the tariff war have been lingering in the minds of global investors over the past week, and Trump's erratic style of behavior has exacerbated market volatility. At the same time, the latest non-farm data and the University of Michigan consumer survey have further clouded the Fed's interest rate cut prospects. Trump will hardly leave the market a chance to blink in the coming week, and further news on his tariff plan will continue to attract close attention. In addition, US inflation data and Fed Chairman Powell's trip to Capitol Hill may be the key to influencing US interest rate cut expectations in the near future. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 22:00, ECB President Lagarde participates in the plenary debate on the ECB's 2023 annual report Tuesday 0:00, US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations Tuesday 21:50, Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks on the economic outlook Tuesday 23:00, Fed Chairman Powell attends Senate hearing and delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony Wednesday 4:30, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks Wednesday 21:30, US January CPI, core CPI Wednesday 23:00, Fed Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Thursday 1:00, 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook Thursday 21:30, US to February Initial jobless claims for the week ended 8th Thursday 21:30, US January PPI annual rate, monthly rate Friday 21:30, US January retail sales monthly rate Friday 22:15, US January industrial output monthly rate Several Wall Street analysts warned that January is traditionally a more challenging period for forecasting CPI due to seasonal factors, which increases the likelihood of market volatility when data is released. According to the Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcasting indicator, the overall CPI growth rate in January is expected to be 2.85% year-on-year, and the core CPI growth rate is 3.13% year-on-year, only slightly slower than the previous month. This should strengthen market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates stable at the March meeting. (Jinshi)