U.S. Recession Concerns Rise Amid Trade War and Economic Uncertainty

According to Cointelegraph, the United States faces a 40% chance of entering a recession in 2025, driven by the potential for an extended trade war and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin highlighted these concerns in a recent interview, noting that while a recession is not inevitable, the current economic climate could negatively impact risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies. Puckrin stated that although U.S. President Donald Trump and his advisors have not ruled out the possibility of a recession, it remains unlikely at present, though the likelihood has increased significantly. Puckrin further explained that President Trump is not deliberately trying to trigger a recession. However, actions taken by his administration, such as reducing federal jobs and cutting spending to balance the budget, could inadvertently lead to economic downturns. The macroeconomic uncertainty has also contributed to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as investors seek more stable opportunities in European markets, moving away from the volatility affecting U.S. markets. The trade war initiated by President Trump's tariffs on U.S. trading partners has sent ripples through the cryptocurrency markets, causing a significant drop in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin's value from its January 20 peak of over $109,000. This has shifted market sentiment from the optimism following Trump's re-election in November 2025 to a state of extreme fear. Bitcoin's price has struggled under the weight of these trade war concerns, currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, indicated that the pressure on crypto markets due to tariffs is expected to persist until April 2025. He suggested that if countries can negotiate an end to the tariffs or if the Trump administration eases its stance, markets may recover. Additionally, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted that Bitcoin may have reached a price bottom in March 2025, as President Trump softened his rhetoric on trade tariffs, hinting at a potential price reversal.