Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Records Worst Q1 in a Decade, Stirring Cycle Concerns Amid Economic Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) posted an 11.7% loss in Q1 2025, marking its weakest first-quarter performance since 2015, according to a report from NYDIG Research. The drop, driven by economic policy uncertainty, profit-taking, and escalating global trade tensions, has reignited debate about where the crypto market currently stands in its cycle.A Decade-Low Start for BitcoinBitcoin’s Q1 2025 performance ranked 12th out of the past 15 first quarters, a significant deviation from its typically strong early-year showings. The last time BTC opened a year this poorly was in 2015, amid a prolonged bear market following the Mt. Gox collapse. While the asset eventually staged a rebound, the weak start raises concerns for 2025’s trajectory.“The question isn’t whether Bitcoin is down—it’s what phase of the cycle we’re actually in,” noted NYDIG analysts. “This type of Q1 drawdown has historically signaled either mid-cycle volatility or the tail-end of a euphoric run.”Tariff Shock and Profit-Taking Drive VolatilityFollowing Donald Trump’s November election victory, crypto markets soared on optimism over pro-crypto regulation and a friendlier SEC stance. However, that bullish narrative was shaken in early April after Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners.The announcement triggered a $5.4 trillion wipeout in the U.S. equities market over two trading days, sending the Nasdaq 100 into bear market territory and the S&P 500 to 11-month lows.While Bitcoin initially showed resilience, slipping less than 4% during the equities rout, it has since dropped below $80,000, raising questions about whether macro-driven risk aversion could spread into crypto.Cycle Uncertainty: Is This a Midway Reset or a Topping Signal?Historically, Q1 losses have had mixed implications for BTC’s annual performance:In 2020, BTC dropped 9.4% in Q1 due to COVID fears, but ended the year up over 300%.In contrast, Q1 losses in 2014, 2018, and 2022 all preceded bear markets, reflecting the end of bull runs.“This time feels different, but the market’s still digesting conflicting signals,” said a senior NYDIG researcher. “Regulatory relief is bullish, but macro policy—especially tariffs—could pressure liquidity and risk appetite.”What to Watch NextApril market open: Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim support above $80K could determine short-term sentiment.Recession signals: Analysts have raised the U.S. recession odds above 60%, adding potential headwinds to crypto’s risk-on appeal.Bitcoin ETF flows and institutional inflows: Continued strength here may stabilize BTC despite macro turmoil.Bitcoin’s worst Q1 since 2015 has stoked uncertainty across the crypto space. While history shows that a weak start doesn't guarantee a bearish year, the coming weeks could be pivotal in determining whether BTC is in a mid-cycle correction—or nearing the end of its bull phase, according to CoinDesk.