QCP: Bitcoin volatility is declining, and without a clear catalyst, it is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range

Odaily Planet Daily News QCP published an article stating that the unexpected rise in job vacancies boosted risk sentiment, and the S&P 500 index approached the psychologically important 6,000-point mark before the release of key non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Stable non-farm payrolls will consolidate the Fed's narrative on the resilience of the labor market and strengthen market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. On the trade front, the market remains on the sidelines, waiting for the expected meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump. Bitcoin (BTC) short-term volatility has declined, with spot prices remaining near the familiar $105,000 level; 1-month implied volatility has fallen below 40 volatility. In the interest rate market, China's 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond futures trading volume fell to the lowest level since February, reflecting a broader risk aversion and wait-and-see attitude. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in a range, and light positions and normalized skewness indicate that the market lacks a clear directional conviction. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the middle to the far end, reflecting a similar downward trend to the VIX index and prompting some investors to take opportunistic long volatility trades. Notably, the $130,000 call option expiring in September was traded at 47 volatility, showing partial market interest in the upside before the third quarter. Looking ahead, the third quarter may be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may begin to penetrate macro data, while fiscal risks around the "Big Beautiful Bill" (BBB) ​​and the debt ceiling may trigger potential news-based volatility. In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range.