CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice at most this year

Odaily Planet Daily News: CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the US inflation in June basically continued the state of "good times", and the month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected for the fifth consecutive month, mainly due to rental inflation and cooling of used car prices. The soft core inflation this time cannot verify the conjecture that "tariffs have a slight impact on inflation". In fact, the tracking indicators such as "CPI with high import content" we constructed show that tariffs have initially affected the prices of import-sensitive terminal consumer goods in the United States. We still believe that there is a hidden danger of rebound in US inflation. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, and there will be at most two rate cuts this year. The space for the continued weakening of the US dollar may be relatively limited, and the current configuration attractiveness of US bonds may still not be very strong. (Jinshi)