CITIC Securities: Trump plays the good cop, Benson plays the bad cop; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to a research report by CITIC Securities, on July 14, local time, US President Trump said that his speech in an interview shocked the market, and US Treasury Secretary Bensont's interview calmed the market. We believe that Trump's "good cop" disturbing the market + Bensont's "good cop" calming the market is the "open card routine" of "TACO trading" in the news-driven market led by Trump. On issues such as Section 899, US-Japan tariff negotiations, and the dismissal of Powell, Trump's remarks have brought negative impacts to the market. Since then, Bensont has made relevant statements and actions that are beneficial to the market: he called on the US Congress to delete Section 899 from OBBBA, remained optimistic about reaching a US-Japan tariff agreement before August 1, and persuaded Trump not to dismiss Powell. Bensont played the role of the Trump administration's market mouthpiece. When facing the sudden "bad news" from the "good cop" Trump, it is necessary to pay attention to the "good cop" Bensont's views on related events. His remarks may be the triggering moment of "TACO trading". Important employment indicators in the United States include new non-agricultural employment, unemployment rate, number of people applying for unemployment benefits, number of job vacancies, etc. Judging from the multi-dimensional data of US employment, the current US job market is still resilient. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has increased, and the employment diffusion index of all private sectors in the United States for one month is in a contraction range, key indicators such as new non-agricultural employment and unemployment rate show the resilience of US employment. The stabilization of more data supports the decision of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after observation. The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is low. (Jinshi)