Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Trump administration will raise the basic tariff rate to 15%

David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, expects the U.S. base “reciprocal” tariff rate to rise to 15% from 10%, with copper and critical minerals set to hit 50% — a move that could fuel inflationary pressures and curb growth. Goldman has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate “early observations” about the impact of import duties. Goldman lowered its core inflation forecast to 3.3% from 3.4% for 2025, raised its forecast to 2.7% from 2.6% for 2026 and to 2.4% from 2.0% for 2027. Mericle said the tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over two to three years. He added that the tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage point in 2026 and 0.3 percentage point in 2027. Goldman has accordingly lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%. (Golden Ten)