U.S. Economic Indicators to Influence Federal Reserve's September Rate Decision

According to PANews, the current week presents limited economic data, yet indicators suggest a slowdown in demand. Despite robust U.S. labor productivity, the deceleration in economic activity and rising service prices indicate mild stagflation. Looking ahead, three significant U.S. economic reports—CPI, PPI, and retail sales—are expected next week, potentially reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Key events include the release of July's CPI data on Tuesday at 20:30 (UTC+8), followed by a speech from 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin at 22:00 (UTC+8). On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will discuss monetary policy at 01:00 (UTC+8), and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will address the U.S. economic outlook at 01:30 (UTC+8). Later that day, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 and July's PPI data will be released at 20:30 (UTC+8). On Friday, Barkin will participate in a webinar at 02:00 (UTC+8). At 22:00 (UTC+8), preliminary figures for August's one-year inflation expectations, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and June's business inventory monthly rate will be announced. Should Friday's retail sales data reveal more severe economic challenges than anticipated, expectations for a September rate cut and another by year-end are unlikely to change. However, any dollar gains driven by the CPI may be limited and short-lived. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump remains open to imposing tariffs on more countries, which could lead to increased selling of U.S. assets if the situation escalates.