Bitcoin Faces Potential Volatility Amid Market Sentiment Shifts

According to PANews, chain analyst Murphy has identified the short-term holder cost basis (STH-RP), currently at $108,800, as a critical sentiment indicator for Bitcoin's market trends. This metric reflects the average turnover cost for short-term holdings. If Bitcoin's price falls below this threshold, short-term investors may shift from unrealized gains to losses, potentially leading to a change in market sentiment from anxiety to panic and disrupting the previous upward trend. Historical data suggests that once this line is breached, the market may experience prolonged recovery periods, characterized by either wide fluctuations or rapid declines, depending on prevailing sentiment and macroeconomic events. The current support range is between $112,000 and $108,000. Should the price drop below this range, there is theoretically a 10%-15% further downside potential, although this must be assessed in conjunction with the actual macroeconomic environment. Analysts recommend that investors prepare trading plans in advance to adapt to market changes. They also emphasize that the current macroeconomic cycle remains in a relaxed phase, with Bitcoin's chip structure appearing healthy and showing no clear signs of a bearish trend.