Bitcoin News Today: Will Bitcoin Price Drop in Red September or Rebound to New Highs?

Key Takeaways:September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with average returns of −3.8%.Analysts argue this year could break the pattern, with BTC targeting $124,500 within 4–6 weeks.A weakening U.S. dollar and expected Fed rate cuts may provide a bullish macro tailwind.September is usually Bitcoin’s weakest monthBitcoin closed August in the red for the first time since April, reviving fears that the downtrend could extend into September.Historically, September has been the worst-performing month for BTC. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted losses in 8 of the past 12 Septembers, averaging −3.8% returns. This “September Effect” often mirrors equities, where the S&P 500 averages −1.2% in September as investors rebalance ahead of Q4.However, Bitcoin’s seasonal trend also shows that green Septembers tend to follow a red August, suggesting sellers may have already front-run the month’s weakness.Analysts see parallels with Bitcoin’s 2017 rallyCrypto analyst Rekt Fencer argues that “a September dump is not coming,” comparing 2025 price action to 2017.Both cycles saw BTC sell off in late August, retest key support, and then rebound strongly. In 2017, that reversal sparked the parabolic run to $20,000.Today, Bitcoin is once again consolidating between $105,000 and $110,000, a level that has flipped from resistance into support — a bullish technical setup.Analyst ZYN highlights a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), signaling that momentum is stronger than price alone suggests. This setup could send BTC above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks, potentially making September a breakout month instead of a breakdown.Macro tailwinds: weaker dollar, Fed rate cutsBeyond technicals, Bitcoin may benefit from macroeconomic forces.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened, with its 52-week correlation to BTC slipping to −0.25, the weakest in two years. A softer dollar historically boosts Bitcoin and risk assets.Traders also expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates this fall, injecting liquidity back into markets.“Two rate cuts mean trillions will flow into the crypto market,” analyst Ash Crypto said. “We are about to enter a parabolic phase where altcoins will explode 10x–50x.”Bottom lineWhile history suggests Bitcoin faces seasonal weakness in September, technical and macro factors may favor a rebound this year. If support at $105K–$110K holds, BTC could challenge its $124,500 record high by October, according to Cointelegraph.